Aylesbury United Forum

General AUFC => Aylesbury United Discussion => Topic started by: wellinever on April 12, 2013, 10:28:55 AM

Title: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: wellinever on April 12, 2013, 10:28:55 AM
Heres the calculation!
AUFC win their remaining 3 games. Oxhey have to lose 2 of their remaining 7 games. All over?
Just look at the oppo for the last 5 games they've got to play in a short space of time. All over ?
Don't think so - just as long as we win these 3 remaining games !! A big ask. But if the same gutsy
performance as last night can be repeated you never know.

PS St Mags put out of the Cup last night via a Putman hat trick. Thought he was red carded on Sat?
Disciplinary shambles.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 12, 2013, 11:23:48 AM
Heres the calculation!
AUFC win their remaining 3 games. Oxhey have to lose 2 of their remaining 7 games. All over?
Just look at the oppo for the last 5 games they've got to play in a short space of time. All over ?
Don't think so - just as long as we win these 3 remaining games !! A big ask. But if the same gutsy
performance as last night can be repeated you never know.

PS St Mags put out of the Cup last night via a Putman hat trick. Thought he was red carded on Sat?
Disciplinary shambles.


With the spirit in the squad, no way is it all over.  9 points is achievable, as many supporters as possible turning up will help.  Get behind the team ladies & gentlemen, be the "12th man" and help get maximum points.  It would be nice to see a crowd as large as last Saturday for our last home match of the season next week.  All you lapsed supporters give us another visit - its a long time until next season!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Graham D on April 12, 2013, 01:21:52 PM
Its NEVER over until its over !
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Lee on April 12, 2013, 01:31:12 PM
It's a shame that the FA won't do anything about promoting both AUFC and Oxhey if whoever finishes third's points per game ratio is better than some of those teams finishing second in the other leagues. There can be little argument that both teams deserve a crack at the higher level.


Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: The number two on April 12, 2013, 03:26:52 PM
IF you think it's all over - go and enjoy summer......if not see you at the last three games with your tired and loyal troop of lads who have thrown everything at it! some risking their marriages!.......it's not over!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: harry the haddock on April 12, 2013, 06:07:32 PM
it's over >:(
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: The number two on April 12, 2013, 06:21:17 PM
Harry!......... :)
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: green and white on April 12, 2013, 07:02:28 PM
We will see,all we can do is get as many points as possible!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: South Bucks Duck on April 12, 2013, 09:58:07 PM
With Oxhey having to play 7 games in 14 days, I can easily see them dropping 4 or 5 points in the games against Ampthill and Hanwell and possibly a couple of points against Hadley in their final game.

I predict we will be runners up
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: The number two on April 13, 2013, 10:47:40 AM
and don't forget Colney heath away, haringay away!!!! horrible games

IF they get through all of that and beat us to second they deserve it.

We've still had a fantastic season
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: paul_gardner on April 13, 2013, 10:57:28 AM
Last 10 league games:

Oxhey W5 D3 L2 (We've W7 D3) - admittedly the losses were against the top 2 in the league   :)

Plenty of reasons for hope. Just got to focus on doing our bit though!!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Lee on April 13, 2013, 12:54:30 PM
In September Oxhey lost 8-0 to Haringey. How did that happen?!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 13, 2013, 01:18:45 PM
it's over >:(

Harry, you're invited to leave the MB until the end of the season, we don't need negativity on here!  COYDs. ;D
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: chrisp on April 13, 2013, 05:23:38 PM
1 down 2 to go!

Looks like it was an eventful game!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: South Bucks Duck on April 13, 2013, 06:55:36 PM
I didn't bank on Hatfield fielding their Ladies team today, let's hope Biggleswade don't run and hide on Tuesday
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Luke on April 13, 2013, 09:11:00 PM
Heard at the game today that although Oxhey will go all out to finish 2nd, they would reject any promotion opportunity due to the costs involved and they don't have the facilities for step 4.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 13, 2013, 09:15:36 PM
Heard at the game today that although Oxhey will go all out to finish 2nd, they would reject any promotion opportunity due to the costs involved and they don't have the facilities for step 4.

I wonder what their players think of that ?  The lack of ambition from the club will surely drive their better players away, many of whom could cope easily at the next level.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: The number two on April 13, 2013, 09:39:41 PM
we've gotta keep going and get our points.....then see what happens
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 13, 2013, 09:42:54 PM
we've gotta keep going and get our points.....then see what happens

May I say you are doing a fine job of it!   3 games to go, 3 wins please!  At least the players get a break this week, hope they don't get withdrawal symptoms from not playing midweek.  It's a long time since the last free week!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: green and white on April 13, 2013, 09:58:17 PM
 Ian Oxhey players know that the start of every season!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 13, 2013, 10:01:42 PM
Then its a lack of ambition all round! :-\
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: green and white on April 13, 2013, 10:04:55 PM
There attitude is to have a club playing within there means. They do not pay there players and have a small commitee who do not have sacks full of money.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 13, 2013, 10:07:39 PM
I commend that attitude, but it does show that their players lack motivation to move up.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Lee on April 13, 2013, 10:10:39 PM
Can AUFC go up from third if Oxhey turn promotion down or is that wishful thinking?!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: green and white on April 13, 2013, 10:14:40 PM
Lee i think it is.Ian you know what its like mates play together even sunday football and stick together.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Liam on April 14, 2013, 12:15:02 AM
Didn't Oxhey apply for promotion?  And if so why would they do that if they had no intention of going up?
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: green and white on April 14, 2013, 09:55:14 AM
Yes they did and have no idea.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 15, 2013, 04:10:11 PM
Still lots of 'if's, but's and maybe's' before the end of the season so all we can do is win our remaining two games.

That would mean that Oxhey would have to get 14 out of a possible 18 points to guarantee second place. And they have to face Ampthill away and Hanwell at home which will be very hard games for them.

Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: The number two on April 15, 2013, 07:47:28 PM
don't forget Haringay away and the 'orrible Colney eath' boys away!!!!!!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 19, 2013, 09:11:22 PM
According to this Oxhey haven't passed the ground grading.  Not sure how reliable it is though.


http://t.co/6yiMl19UlV (http://t.co/6yiMl19UlV)

The small table on the right hand side makes good reading should we hold on to second place.   ;)
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Luke on April 20, 2013, 10:23:25 AM
According to this Oxhey haven't passed the ground grading.  Not sure how reliable it is though.


http://t.co/6yiMl19UlV (http://t.co/6yiMl19UlV)

The small table on the right hand side makes good reading should we hold on to second place.   ;)

Yes apparently that's what their manager was saying after our game, that they don't want promotion, but they do want to be runners up!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 20, 2013, 11:28:59 AM
Our worst case scenario is 91 points from 42 games. PPG 2.167

Our best case scenario 97 points from 42 games. PPG 2.309.

Best case scenario PPG for the other teams in the current top five:

VCD                       2.412
Wisbech                2.263
Redhill                   2.214
Epsom                   2.095
Gt Wakering          1.944

Very interesting!!!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 20, 2013, 11:57:37 AM
Our worst case scenario is 91 points from 42 games. PPG 2.167

Our best case scenario 97 points from 42 games. PPG 2.309.

Best case scenario PPG for the other teams in the current top five:

VCD                       2.412
Wisbech                2.263
Redhill                   2.214
Epsom                   2.095
Gt Wakering          1.944

Very interesting!!!

Don't forget Guernsey Steve, loads of games to play yet and I think their PPG will beat all of that lot if they manage to win all their games - however unlikely that may be.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 20, 2013, 12:16:29 PM
Very true, but one advantage of having only two games left to play is our PPG cant drop that much.

For Guernsey to at least  maintain their current PPG of 2.29, they would need to get 25 points from their remaining games.

Permutations for that to happen are:

11 wins
10 wins
9 wins
8 win 1 draw
7 wins 4 draws

Thats the only ways they can do it and considering they are playing so many games in such a short space of time.....gonna be hard. They have to win at least 7 of their last 11 games!!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: South Bucks Duck on April 20, 2013, 06:19:36 PM
The problem is, that Guernsey will probably win the league and therefore runners up would be Egham who are currently 2.34 but are fortunately dropping points the moment.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: The number two on April 21, 2013, 02:28:49 PM
LETS HOPE WE CAN GET PROMOTION AWAY FROM THIS TIN POT WE ARE IN.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: South Bucks Duck on April 21, 2013, 05:39:29 PM
Lets change Counties while we are at it !
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: wellinever on April 21, 2013, 08:27:45 PM
Have thoroughly enjoyed watching most home and away matches in this TP League this(and last) season.
Nothing much wrong with it from a spectator point of view.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Leon on April 22, 2013, 10:44:13 PM
Unless I'm reading it wrong, the up-to-date version of the previously posted spreadsheet seems to suggest that we'll get promoted even if we finish third, due to Oxhey failing their ground grading...is it just me?!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqII2SlGRhT7dHIwSUdacDRlaDV3VkNsSjc3UVdqWnc#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqII2SlGRhT7dHIwSUdacDRlaDV3VkNsSjc3UVdqWnc#gid=0)
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 23, 2013, 09:10:33 AM
I had the same thought Leon.  I guess we won't know for sure until the relegation roulette wheel has stopped spinning!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: andf on April 23, 2013, 01:14:36 PM
Either way the spreadsheet makes good reading

We must finish the job Saturday and can do no more

Good to see that just about eveyone else is caught up in a fixture backlog

It's great to have something to genuinely get excited about again
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 23, 2013, 01:41:43 PM
We certainly seem to be in a good position. However, all we can do is win our last game on Saturday. That will leave us with a PPG ratio of 2.3095. Then we have to see how the others finish up. Can do no more.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Lee on April 23, 2013, 01:43:01 PM
Either way the spreadsheet makes good reading

We must finish the job Saturday and can do no more

Good to see that just about eveyone else is caught up in a fixture backlog

It's great to have something to genuinely get excited about again

Imagine if there'd been a spreadsheet like that 10 years ago, I'd have been in my element!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 23, 2013, 03:36:00 PM
The two second placed clubs on a higher PPG than us both have lots of games left to play. Their league seasons wont finish till around 10th May so will be a bit of a wait for us!

Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Lee on April 24, 2013, 08:01:32 AM
Unless I'm reading it wrong, the up-to-date version of the previously posted spreadsheet seems to suggest that we'll get promoted even if we finish third, due to Oxhey failing their ground grading...is it just me?!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqII2SlGRhT7dHIwSUdacDRlaDV3VkNsSjc3UVdqWnc#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqII2SlGRhT7dHIwSUdacDRlaDV3VkNsSjc3UVdqWnc#gid=0)

The FA website seems to suggest that to be eligible for promotion you have to finish in the top three but only two teams can be promoted from any one league.

Assuming Oxhey can't go up someone needs to send the league committee some chocolates and handbags for their wives to make sure!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: harry the haddock on April 24, 2013, 09:38:39 AM
bit of a bummer oxhey coming from 1 down to win 3-1 last night. really thought they might slip up in that game.

HOWEVER looking at the updated spreadsheet even if heftrord won on saturday aylesbury could finish no worse than 3rd in the ppg table .it is impossible for wisbech and redhill to catch up. the only team that can thwart a second palce finish is guernsey but they have only won 1 in 4 , and their defeat on Sunday put them below the Ducks. they have now 9 games in 13 days and would need to get at least 20 points from those games in order to match AUFC. A win for Aylesbury on Saturday would almost certainly seal 2nd place, which would seem to almost ensure promotion.

hope i've read this right ! happy days if so :)
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Merch Queen on April 24, 2013, 09:53:16 AM
I dont really understand all this- why is football so complicated. Harry I hope you have workedd it all out right :-) lets get behind 'em and ensure that win on Saturday!!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Lee on April 24, 2013, 10:12:40 AM
The lower down the pyramid you go the more complicated it gets!

Hopefully common sense will prevail and the FA will promote the 14 clubs who fulfill the criteria and have performed the best at Step 5 over the last season.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 24, 2013, 10:31:49 AM
As has been said many times before, all we can do is win our last game and see what happens.

Whether we get promoted or not, let's not forget what a great season this has been. Best unbeaten run in the clubs history, most league points gained in the clubs history and most league goals scored in the clubs history. Plus we are in a cup final next Wednesday. First one in 19years.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: chrisp on April 24, 2013, 10:45:20 AM
Agree Steve. If before the start of the season people would have said we would finish with the worst scenario being 3rd in the league and have 2 cup finals to go to ( OK it turned out not to be quite that!!) we would have probably taken that!

Its been a season of many high points and very few low points and we cant control what other teams do, so lets concentrate on getting ourselves as many points as possible!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: South Bucks Duck on April 24, 2013, 10:07:59 PM
Wonderful hard luck as Guernsey lost again tonight, 4-2 to Colliers Wood
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: harry the haddock on April 25, 2013, 09:57:13 AM
which means a win on saturday will almost ensure the ducks as the second placer on the ppg table. in fact guernsey's defeat last night means its very likely that aufc will be 2nd. hopefully that will lead to promotion to the promised land (!) and we can start dreaming of derby days against stocklake/quarrendon/hale leys or whatever they decide to call themselves next year ;D
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 25, 2013, 01:06:13 PM
According to my calculations if all the teams that are in the mix for this win their remaining games we would end up third behind VCD Athletic and Guernsey.

Also, IF we were to get promoted its not guaranteed that it would be into the Southern League. The FA will announce what the league structures for 2013/14 will be at the end of May. Till then, just win the last game, enjoy the presentation night and have a well earned rest for a few weeks!!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Lee on April 25, 2013, 01:20:08 PM
Out of interest, when applying for promotion to Step 4 can you specifically state that you only want to be considered for promotion to a particular league (i.e. Southern or Isthmian) or is it just a blanket application for Step 4 and you take what you're given?
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 25, 2013, 01:23:40 PM
Dont know for certain but ive had enough conversations with other clubs complaining about the league they are in to believe that "you go where you are put".

 
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Graham D on April 25, 2013, 01:44:59 PM
Out of interest Steve how many games do both VCD and Guernsey have left to play and what period do they have to complete them by ?
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 25, 2013, 02:06:37 PM
VCD 5 games: Thurs 25th, Sat 27th, Tues 30th, Thurs 2nd, Mon 10th

Guernsey 8 games: Fri 26th, Sat 27th, Sun 28th, Tues 30th, Fri 3rd, Sat 4th, Sun 5th, Mon 6th.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: harry the haddock on April 25, 2013, 02:31:31 PM
According to my calculations if all the teams that are in the mix for this win their remaining games we would end up third behind VCD Athletic and Guernsey.

Also, IF we were to get promoted its not guaranteed that it would be into the Southern League. The FA will announce what the league structures for 2013/14 will be at the end of May. Till then, just win the last game, enjoy the presentation night and have a well earned rest for a few weeks!!

that's my calculation as well. haven't considered VCD as they are such a good run (think it's 5 wins on the bounce) at the very least Guernsey have got to get 20 points out of 24 and given their recent run, their hectic schedule and the fact that they are already down to the bare bones in terms of playing squad i fel it's unlikely that they'd make that target. if aufc draw then guernsey have to get 21 out of 24 and if 3 points were forthcoming from the hertford game then the channel islanders would not be able to drop any points. i think the ducks can safely celebrate 2nd place in the ppg league (if not the south midlands!)
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 25, 2013, 02:51:31 PM
On another completely different point, Guernsey get some great home attendances. Last two home games posted on their website show attendances of 949 and 1041 for last Saturday and Sundays games!!

They also got 4290 for their home Vase semi final.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: harry the haddock on April 25, 2013, 03:54:07 PM
presuming that all goes to plan and aufc get promoted what are the implications for both the overall and playing budget?
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: andf on April 25, 2013, 05:54:19 PM
It might be squeaky bum time but it's more excitement than we've had at this stage for ages

I keep having to go back to 'the spreadsheet' to check it

I love the way that whenever anyone appears to be getting too carried away Steve's there to bring them back to earth - "win on Saturday..... wait until the end of May, etc"  ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: andreasmartini on April 25, 2013, 07:18:33 PM
More than the "premier team" in Quarendon have had to talk aboutrecently ...........

It would be disappointing if after all of this we got promoted to the Ryman over the Southern although it has been great to have something to cheer about as a ducks fan this season. I wonder how many of us will be keeping one eye on the Oxhey twitter feed tonight?
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: wellinever on April 25, 2013, 07:35:39 PM
Hertford will be no pushovers on Sat.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: green and white on April 25, 2013, 09:18:30 PM
Neither will Hadley!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: green and white on April 25, 2013, 09:20:01 PM
More than the "premier team" in Quarendon have had to talk aboutrecently ...........

It would be disappointing if after all of this we got promoted to the Ryman over the Southern although it has been great to have something to cheer about as a ducks fan this season. I wonder how many of us will be keeping one eye on the Oxhey twitter feed tonight?

I HEARD NO RESERVE TEAM FOR THEM NEXT SEASON!!!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: chairboy on April 25, 2013, 10:13:40 PM
Its ok have heard ATFC thinking of a reserves squad for there Sunday senior section ;D :D ;D 
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 25, 2013, 10:44:33 PM
More than the "premier team" in Quarendon have had to talk aboutrecently ...........

It would be disappointing if after all of this we got promoted to the Ryman over the Southern although it has been great to have something to cheer about as a ducks fan this season. I wonder how many of us will be keeping one eye on the Oxhey twitter feed tonight?

I HEARD NO RESERVE TEAM FOR THEM NEXT SEASON!!!

No surprise there - they have struggled to put out a team in the last couple of months and have been soundly beaten with great regularity.  They haven't won a game since 8th Dec.
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: The number two on April 25, 2013, 10:57:15 PM
HARRY!!!!!!!!!..............Still think it's over :)

Still some work to do but we are in with a bloody good shout now!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: harry the haddock on April 26, 2013, 09:26:34 AM
lol - always best to be a pessimist - you're never disappointed and always have that possibiliy of being pleasantly surprised if events turn out in your favour!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: stevepb on April 26, 2013, 09:33:34 AM
I love the way that whenever anyone appears to be getting too carried away Steve's there to bring them back to earth - "win on Saturday..... wait until the end of May, etc"  ;D ;D ;D

Actually I'm trying to keep myself from getting too excited!!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: andf on April 26, 2013, 10:31:32 AM
 ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: The number two on April 26, 2013, 07:52:02 PM
we forgive you Harry - cos we know you are going to be right behind us saturday - we will do everything to win for.....simply the best bunch of positive fans I have ever worked for.....and the players feel the same.......
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Graham D on April 26, 2013, 09:20:53 PM
currently with the wife at the red lion in bierton , she's just gone out for a fag break trouble is all i can think of is the game tommorrow
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 26, 2013, 09:27:59 PM
currently with the wife at the red lion in bierton , she's just gone out for a fag break trouble is all i can think of is the game tommorrow

Nerves Graham?  Just have a large glass of red and prepare the vocal chords!  See you at 1-30?
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Lee on April 28, 2013, 06:59:28 AM
Either way the spreadsheet makes good reading

We must finish the job Saturday and can do no more

Good to see that just about eveyone else is caught up in a fixture backlog

It's great to have something to genuinely get excited about again

AUFC have gone green on the spreadsheet!
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: Ian on April 28, 2013, 09:26:26 AM
To quote a famous line from football commentary:

Who thinks its All Over ?

It is now!

 ;D
Title: Re: Who thinks its All Over ?
Post by: chairboy on May 02, 2013, 07:28:51 PM
Looks better everytime it gets updated!!!

   Spartan S Midlands      42 Games      
   COMPLETED   P   Pts   GD   PPG
C   Dunstable Town   42   114   110   2.714
2   Aylesbury United   42   94   63   2.238
3   Oxhey Jets   42   91   75   2.167
4   St Margaretsbury   42   83   30   1.976
5   Ampthill Town   42   77   38   1.833
Aylesbury Utd are promoted, as they cannot finish lower than 4th in the PPG table[/b]